Just as stock and housing markets have bubbles, so can human emotions. We are seeing the effects of one in Egypt today.
The Mubarak autocracy is seen by many in Egypt as a puppet of the United States, a police state that receives more US aid than any other country save Israel. While anti-Americanism is not the driving force behind Egyptian unrest, it can not be discounted. Egyptian approval of the US is among the lowest in the world, and the last couple of years it's been on a roller coaster ride.
The end of the Bush Presidency saw Egyptian approval of US leadership at a dismal 6% according to a 2008 Gallup poll1. After the election of Obama and his 2009 Cairo address², that approval number surged to 37%. Just 6 months later, the approval rating had plummeted to 19%.
The Obama 'hope bubble' burst in Egypt just as it did in the United States. When it comes to promises, the negative consequences of failure are directly related to the scale of those promises. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
Of course the causes of Egyptian discontent are complex and go much deeper than the hollow hope provided by an American President, even the hope provided by America's first black President to an African country. Lack of political choices, lack of jobs, and lack of food certainly played a more direct role. One could make a reasonable argument that this uprising would not have occurred if not for the current economic crisis, but the bursting of the hope bubble created by Obama didn't help.
Admittedly, anti-American sentiment in Egypt is more subtle than it is in other Arab countries, but Egyptians do pay attention to what America says and, more importantly, to what it does and doesn't do.
Just what, exactly, were Egyptians hoping for? In 2008, a Gallup Poll asked Egyptians what actions would improve their view of the United States. The percentage of Egyptians who rated potential American actions as “very significant” were: Pulling out of Iraq at 64%, Removing military bases from Saudi Arabia at 60%, Closing Guantanamo Bay at 50%. Despite the promises of a new American President, the US has failed on all counts.
This is not new. For decades the United States has been preaching peace, democracy, and human rights out one side of its mouth, and spitting bombs out the other. As any empire in its death throws, economic and military coercion increase in an attempt retain power.
While the significance of the bursting of the Obama hope bubble is certainly open to debate, consider which country has the lowest US approval rating of any country in the world – Tunisia3. Hmmm...
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